Poker Gods Keep Smiling
The poker gods keep smiling on me. I took my usual trip down the Muck last night. I did not get there until after work at like 6:20pm. That is usually a bad thing as the games are full and I may have to wait a while. I did. They run a tournament that starts at 7:15pm and that usually turns the game over as at least a few people get out of the game to go play. There was a $50/100 going again yesterday. I hope this turns into a regular Tuesday thing, and by the sound of the talk at the game it probably will, at least while the high limit regulars are in town. The game was full when I got there, but I was first up. The game turned over a bit for the tournament and I got a seat at about 7:30pm. There was not much of a list, as this size game is at the upper limit of what Seattle can sustain. As I mentioned last week, you need a decent size bankroll to play $50/100 on a regular basis. If you go by a common rule of thumb of 200 BB you need $20,000. Now Seattle has some money, but not that many of them play poker. Add to that the need to play it well, or at least really enjoy it, because if you are not a winning or break even player you will lose $10,000 or more per month if you play regularly. This game will break a lot of people. I think if we keep this game up we will lose a few regulars quickly as there are some people dropping $15,000 in the last two weeks. Ouch, that will leave a mark. Seattle is just not that deep for high limit players.
So to the game. It stayed partially full all night. We never had 9 players at the table while I was there, and for the most part we had 6 or 7. Perfect for me as my favorite game is 4 handed. The game only had two of the good regulars in it and the rest were weak tight players, or gamblers. I was able to push the table around almost at will. I was reading well. Running ok, not hot, but my timing was perfect last night. When I sensed I could steal a pot I did, and it worked almost 90% of the time. I was winning a lot of pots without a showdown, and had some big hands match up with some good 2nd best hands to make some big pots. I was not chasing, and I knew where I was almost at all times. I am feeling really good about my game right now. I have a ton of confidence, and that really translates into good poker and table image. I heard one players make a comment that I was the luckiest guy at the table. I love when I hear that. I am lucky sometimes, but when you win with the best hand or make the correct calls with draws that do get there over time at their percentage you will win. It is when you get drawn out on at a higher percentage than you should, or chase, that you lose money. I had my percentage of best hands get beat on the river, I just lost the minimum when I did, and I don't whine or show the hand so people just forget those hands. That is a key point, NEVER show your hands if you don't have to, unless you have a reason. Why do you want people to see that they can suck out on you, why give them the confidence? The had will just disappear from memory. There are some times when showing is good. If you are trying to create a table image of strong, then show some big hands that don't get called. If you want to put someone on tilt, that is prone to tilt, or to set up a play in a later hand, then show the bluff. HAVE a reason however, don't do it just because, or to make the other player feel good about his laydown. Leave the doubt in their mind so they know that they will have to pay you off to see the hand. If they know that if they lay down you will show anyway you will lose those river bets. Those $100 bills can add up fast. I also maximized the best hands and got lots of extra bets out of my hands. Those add up in a hurry too. I stole a lot of pots last night with what I am sure was not the best hand at the time. People see those pots but did not see the hands. They were assuming that I had the hand. It IS good to be lucky, but it is better to be good and have the table think you are just lucky. You get paid off a lot more with that image. It is not luck to win 8 straight sessions and 9 out of ten over that last month and 1/2. I am playing really well and I am getting results that reflect that. But feel free to call me Mr. Lucky if you would like.
Let me relate one fun hand that happened last night three handed to show how the day went. I had pocket 66's in the SB. Button folded, I raise out of the small blind. Why? I most likely have the best hand heads up, I am out of position so I want to show strength, and set up a bluffing opportunity if I miss. You always want to take control of the hand and be the aggressor. You can win two ways instead of one. I can bluff when I miss and he folds, or I can hit the best hand. If you don't raise you don't give your opponent the chance to lay down. Make THEM see the ghosts. If you are just calling, you can only win with the best hand. I did not miss. Flop 6,K,Q, rainbow. I bet out and get raised. I just call as I am pretty sure I have the best hand and want to get the extra bet on the turn when it is worth more money. Turn a 9, I check hoping for the check raise. He checks behind me, crap I just missed a bet I thought. However, I now know he has 2nd pair, I also know he has not put me on a hand yet, if he thought 2nd pair was good he would have bet. River a perfect Q making him trips and my boat. I bet right out. I had a feeling he would raise, and if he just put me on a K or under pair he would feel good about his hand. He raises me and I three bet him, he calls. I drag the pot. I probably did miss a bet here however. If I bet the turn he most likely calls with 2nd pair heads up, and he most likely raises the river anyway and calls the three bet on the river. O well I guess they all can't go perfect.
So after all that verbosity how did I do? I ended up the day $4,561, a whopping 45.6 BB and a win rate if 11.4 BB an hour. HUGE day, feels good, the poker gods keep on smiling at me. I hope this continues into next week as I head to Vegas on Thursday for the Bellagio tournaments. I hope I get deep in one or two.
On a side note I said that I would respond to an e-mail that I received on underground poker in Seattle. It does not exist. Why? A couple of reasons. #1, we have good legal poker in the Seattle area. You can play as high as you would like in Seattle at both the Muck and up at Tulailup(SP?). There is not enough demand to play any higher than $50/100. People just don't have that kind of poker money around here. The $50 game only goes one or two days a month here, and it is mostly $30/60. You need a sustainable amount of high limit players to make a club work. You are not going to have a club that spreads $4/8 or even $10/20. There are a billion places in Seattle with those games, why would you risk playing in an illegal game to win $100 bucks. There are only three of us in Seattle that can play any higher than $100/200 on a regular basis. I only play one maybe two days a week. Also, we want to win. If we just played each other there would be no edge, we need the other people who can afford to play $30 or $50 but lose to be in the game. #2) It is illegal and not the safest place to play. Do you really want to bring $20,000 to a place that is illegal? If it gets raided they will take your money. The people that play there might carry weapons, and be people of questionable character. There are a number of drug dealers and pimps that play in these bigger games. If they can't go to a home game or club they will come to the casino. I much prefer the security of the casino to an illegal club even if they did have a bouncer. There is enough to think about in these big games, to have to worry about weather or not you are going to get beat up or worse when you take their money is not one more thing I want to think about. Because I will take their money over a few session and they do get mad, even in the casino. They just can't do anything about it at the casino. There are home games here, but they are mostly tournaments or just for fun. Sometimes the stakes can be big, I mentioned that I play in an executive NL games sometimes. But never big enough to replace a win at $50/100. Hope you are all winning, talk to you soon..SJ
So to the game. It stayed partially full all night. We never had 9 players at the table while I was there, and for the most part we had 6 or 7. Perfect for me as my favorite game is 4 handed. The game only had two of the good regulars in it and the rest were weak tight players, or gamblers. I was able to push the table around almost at will. I was reading well. Running ok, not hot, but my timing was perfect last night. When I sensed I could steal a pot I did, and it worked almost 90% of the time. I was winning a lot of pots without a showdown, and had some big hands match up with some good 2nd best hands to make some big pots. I was not chasing, and I knew where I was almost at all times. I am feeling really good about my game right now. I have a ton of confidence, and that really translates into good poker and table image. I heard one players make a comment that I was the luckiest guy at the table. I love when I hear that. I am lucky sometimes, but when you win with the best hand or make the correct calls with draws that do get there over time at their percentage you will win. It is when you get drawn out on at a higher percentage than you should, or chase, that you lose money. I had my percentage of best hands get beat on the river, I just lost the minimum when I did, and I don't whine or show the hand so people just forget those hands. That is a key point, NEVER show your hands if you don't have to, unless you have a reason. Why do you want people to see that they can suck out on you, why give them the confidence? The had will just disappear from memory. There are some times when showing is good. If you are trying to create a table image of strong, then show some big hands that don't get called. If you want to put someone on tilt, that is prone to tilt, or to set up a play in a later hand, then show the bluff. HAVE a reason however, don't do it just because, or to make the other player feel good about his laydown. Leave the doubt in their mind so they know that they will have to pay you off to see the hand. If they know that if they lay down you will show anyway you will lose those river bets. Those $100 bills can add up fast. I also maximized the best hands and got lots of extra bets out of my hands. Those add up in a hurry too. I stole a lot of pots last night with what I am sure was not the best hand at the time. People see those pots but did not see the hands. They were assuming that I had the hand. It IS good to be lucky, but it is better to be good and have the table think you are just lucky. You get paid off a lot more with that image. It is not luck to win 8 straight sessions and 9 out of ten over that last month and 1/2. I am playing really well and I am getting results that reflect that. But feel free to call me Mr. Lucky if you would like.
Let me relate one fun hand that happened last night three handed to show how the day went. I had pocket 66's in the SB. Button folded, I raise out of the small blind. Why? I most likely have the best hand heads up, I am out of position so I want to show strength, and set up a bluffing opportunity if I miss. You always want to take control of the hand and be the aggressor. You can win two ways instead of one. I can bluff when I miss and he folds, or I can hit the best hand. If you don't raise you don't give your opponent the chance to lay down. Make THEM see the ghosts. If you are just calling, you can only win with the best hand. I did not miss. Flop 6,K,Q, rainbow. I bet out and get raised. I just call as I am pretty sure I have the best hand and want to get the extra bet on the turn when it is worth more money. Turn a 9, I check hoping for the check raise. He checks behind me, crap I just missed a bet I thought. However, I now know he has 2nd pair, I also know he has not put me on a hand yet, if he thought 2nd pair was good he would have bet. River a perfect Q making him trips and my boat. I bet right out. I had a feeling he would raise, and if he just put me on a K or under pair he would feel good about his hand. He raises me and I three bet him, he calls. I drag the pot. I probably did miss a bet here however. If I bet the turn he most likely calls with 2nd pair heads up, and he most likely raises the river anyway and calls the three bet on the river. O well I guess they all can't go perfect.
So after all that verbosity how did I do? I ended up the day $4,561, a whopping 45.6 BB and a win rate if 11.4 BB an hour. HUGE day, feels good, the poker gods keep on smiling at me. I hope this continues into next week as I head to Vegas on Thursday for the Bellagio tournaments. I hope I get deep in one or two.
On a side note I said that I would respond to an e-mail that I received on underground poker in Seattle. It does not exist. Why? A couple of reasons. #1, we have good legal poker in the Seattle area. You can play as high as you would like in Seattle at both the Muck and up at Tulailup(SP?). There is not enough demand to play any higher than $50/100. People just don't have that kind of poker money around here. The $50 game only goes one or two days a month here, and it is mostly $30/60. You need a sustainable amount of high limit players to make a club work. You are not going to have a club that spreads $4/8 or even $10/20. There are a billion places in Seattle with those games, why would you risk playing in an illegal game to win $100 bucks. There are only three of us in Seattle that can play any higher than $100/200 on a regular basis. I only play one maybe two days a week. Also, we want to win. If we just played each other there would be no edge, we need the other people who can afford to play $30 or $50 but lose to be in the game. #2) It is illegal and not the safest place to play. Do you really want to bring $20,000 to a place that is illegal? If it gets raided they will take your money. The people that play there might carry weapons, and be people of questionable character. There are a number of drug dealers and pimps that play in these bigger games. If they can't go to a home game or club they will come to the casino. I much prefer the security of the casino to an illegal club even if they did have a bouncer. There is enough to think about in these big games, to have to worry about weather or not you are going to get beat up or worse when you take their money is not one more thing I want to think about. Because I will take their money over a few session and they do get mad, even in the casino. They just can't do anything about it at the casino. There are home games here, but they are mostly tournaments or just for fun. Sometimes the stakes can be big, I mentioned that I play in an executive NL games sometimes. But never big enough to replace a win at $50/100. Hope you are all winning, talk to you soon..SJ
posted by Seattlejohn at 11:50 AM
5 Comments:
Great blog John. I've been reading for a while. I also have wondered about underground poker in seattle. Seems like there are a number of them in NYC and although I know Seattle isnt that big I always thought there would be one or two. Anyway thanks for sharing your insights.
Great post. I'm a semi-regular at 10/20 at the Muck, and I watched you play for a while last time I was there (at least I think it was you. I asked one of the dealers which one at the 30/60 table was John). I even thought about giving you $500 just to sit over your shoulder and watch you play. (My thoughts - If you lose, fine. If you win, I'd keep 50% of my buy-in percentage). I've started running very well lately, but I'm always willing to learn.
Keep 'em on their toes.
-DrC
Great Blog, Mr Lucky!
200 big bets sounds like a good way to go broke if you are playing a lot of short handed poker.
Also, nice blog.
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